Washington, DC
Good afternoon,
Today is a very special day. It is October 21, 2015 Back to the Future Day. When in 1989, Hollywood predicted:
- the Chicago Cubs would win the World Series not looking good right now
- drones would be photographing major news events check
- and they would be walking your dog not in my neighborhood!
I am happy to be with you once again. Speaking before the Aero Club of Washington is always a privilege.
From the beginnings of aviation in America, the Aero Club has been the place where we have marked great milestones in aviation and aerospace. This forum has played host to people responsible for amazing accomplishments: Wilbur Wright, Charles Lindbergh, Amelia Earhart, Neil Armstrong, to name just a few.
These pioneers gave us firsthand accounts of the evolution of aviationfrom the advent of controlled flight, to the first solo flight from New York to Paris, to the first steps on the moon. At each step they applied the highest scientific principles of their time, added in heaping doses of imagination and courage, and took the human race to places it had never been before.
We are fortunate at the FAA to have a tangible reminder of our nations aviation history just down the street. Each time I walk through the doors of the Smithsonians National Air and Space Museum, I have to pause and take it in.
The Wright Flyer, the Spirit of St. Louis, Glamorous Glennis, the X-15 space plane. Apollo 11. These are aviations mileposts.
Today, I want to share with you some thoughts about where aviation is headed. We find ourselves looking over a horizon that presents new challenges that require us all to think and act differently.
Not so long ago, a trip aboard an airplane was an experience of a lifetime something youd likely never forget.
But how many of you remember something unusual about your most recent plane trip? How about three trips ago?
Aviation has become so routine its often boring. Thats something the safety community can be proud of. It has never been safer to step aboard an aircraft and know with certainty that youll reach your destination safely.
The question now is how we take safety to the next level. How do we achieve zero accidents? Thats something we are thinking about very hard at the FAA.
From the beginning, aviation has been about evolution and open-mindedness. At each milepost, progress depended on an individual or a group of individuals unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom.
Leonardo DaVinci dreamed of flying. His journals were filled with innovative sketches of flying machines, yet he never knew what it was like to see the earth from the vantage point of an eagle.
As author David McCullough shared with us last month here at Aero Club, Wilbur and Orville Wright applied the centuries of learning since DaVinci. And then they discovered that some of that knowledge was based on flawed assumptions. What did they do? They challenged conventional wisdom and built the first wind tunnel to prove their own theories.
Using much the same approach, Charles Lindbergh proved that something as simple as a single-engine airplane could shrink the world.
This willingness to consider and embrace new ideas defines us, probably even more today than ever.
For decades, our traditional approach in aviation safety was to analyze accidents after they occurred to determine what went wrong and to try to prevent the problem from causing the same type of accident again. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the FAA set a goal of reducing accidents by 80 percent.
Youve heard before from my colleague Peggy Gilligan that, when that goal was announced, our critics doubted we could do it.
But, together with the aviation industry, we formed the Commercial Aviation Safety Team, or CAST to focus on intense data analysis to detect risk and prevent accidents or incidents from happening in the first place. We adopted a wide array of programs that encouraged aviation professionalsbe they pilots, flight attendants, mechanics or air traffic controllersto voluntarily report safety events without jeopardizing their careers.
Today, we can all take credit for an amazing accomplishment: We have all but eliminated the traditional common causes of commercial accidents controlled flight into terrain, weather, wind shear, failure to complete checklists. All told, the Commercial Aviation Safety Team reduced the risk of fatalities in U.S. commercial aviationnot by 80 percentbut by 83 percent over 10 years.
But we know we can never be satisfied with the status quo. We know we must constantly and continually evolve to meet the safety challenges of tomorrow.
So the FAA and industry together developed Safety Management Systems, which are designed to identify hazards, to assess the risks from those hazards, and to put measures in place to mitigate those risks. This is the core of what we call our Risk-Based Decision Making Initiative.
Now were taking this to the next level through what we are calling the Compliance Philosophy.
The Compliance Philosophy focuses on the most fundamental goal: find problems in the National Airspace System before they result in an incident or accident, use the most appropriate tools to fix those problems, and monitor the situation to ensure they stay fixed.
This approach recognizes that most operators voluntarily comply with both the rules and the core principles of a Safety Management System. It also recognizes that, in todays complex environment, even the best operators sometimes make honest mistakes. But even unintentional errors threaten safety, so we have to fix them.
To accomplish this, we must maintain an open and transparent exchange of information and data between the FAA and industry. We dont want operators who might inadvertently make a mistake to hide it because they have a fear of being punished. If there is a failing, whether human or mechanical, we need to know about it. We will learn from it and make the changes necessary to prevent it from happening again.
Now this type of cooperation and trust can be extremely challenging to achieve in the traditional, enforcement-focused approach.
So, in cases where a deviation results from factors such as flawed procedures, simple mistakes, lack of understanding, or diminished skills, we use tools like training or documented improvements to procedures in order to ensure compliance with the standard.
This doesnt mean were going to go easy on compliance, or that were ignoring minor issues. Enforcement is, and always will be, one of our tools to ensure compliance. We use the enforcement tool in the case of willful or flagrant violations, or for refusal to cooperate in corrective action.
On the FAA side, we are using data, not calendar dates, to determine when and where to conduct surveillance and inspections. We are emphasizing that we expect our employees to use critical thinking, which is essential to the success of the Compliance Philosophy.
The FAA expects certificate holders to develop and implement risk controls that are appropriate to their operational environment.
Both regulators and operators must understand the difference between accountability which accepts responsibility and looks forward and blame, which focuses on punishment for whats already happened. With accountability, the idea is to look at the operators compliance attitude.
A common analogy in aviation safety is to compare the occurrence of accidents to the holes lining up in a block of Swiss cheese. Change one factor, and the holes dont line up; the accident doesnt happen. Our goal here the goal we must set if we are to move toward a zero accident rate is to stop even two holes from lining up.
We believe Compliance Philosophy is the type of evolutionary thinking that will help us continue our quest to make aviation even safer.
Perhaps one of the greatest evolutions in our thinking is occurring today. After 112 years of focusing on carrying humans safely aloft, we face a different kind of challenge. It has become apparent to all of us that we are at the dawn of a time when unmanned aircraft are playing a growing role in world aviation.
Somebody called the birth of the unmanned aircraft industry the Wright Brothers moment of our time. Maybe so. Maybe not.
But, theres no question that innovation in this new segment is taking place at the speed of imagination. Andas we all know too wellgovernment usually moves at the speed of government.
Sometimes this is a good and necessary thing. Our responsibilities as the aviation safety regulator demand we take a thoughtful approach when developing and implementing new rules. At the same time, we are mindful that we need to move quickly to ensure these aircraft are integrated into the National Airspace System in the safest manner possible.
Let me give you a small peek at the next few months. Major retailers such as Wal-Mart have indicated that they plan to sell unmanned aircraft in their retail stores this holiday season. And its not just retail stores. Just last week, in addition to the usual booths hawking amazing floor-cleaners and knives that can cut through tin cans, a vendor at the Texas State Fair in Dallas was selling drones of varying sizes. And a major computer supplier is offering a free drone if you buy a new computer as long as you act before November 2.
By some estimates, 700,000 new unmanned aircraft could be in the homes of consumers by the end of the year. Think about it: By the end of the holiday season, drones could far outnumber manned aircraft operating in the nations airspace.
There is no question that the interest in this segment of aviation is intense. The FAA is reviewing more than 4,600 comments we received on the proposed small UAS rule. The final rule is on track to be issued by Spring 2016. In the interim, weve granted more than 2,000 exemptions to commercial operators.
These new aircraft are bringing an entirely new type of users into the airspace most with little or no experience with our regulations.
Many of them dont even consider themselves to be pilots. Yet hundreds of times over the last year, unmanned aircraft have come uncomfortably close to manned aircraft, at altitudes of thousands of feet well above the 400 feet or so that our current rules spell out.
Groups such as AUVSI, the Academy of Model Aeronautics and the Small UAV Coalition share a common goal with the FAA. We all want to safely integrate unmanned aircraft. Weve seen proposed uses ranging from the headline grabbers such as Amazons desire to use them to someday drop a package at your door, to ones that can be used to safely conduct dangerous tasks that are now done by manned aircraft.
Nobody wants this promising segment to be overshadowed by an incident or accident that could easily be avoided with proper training and awareness of safety principles that are now second nature in manned aviation.
Until recently, the FAA focused on education as our chief tool in helping these new pilots learn the rules of the sky, particularly as our formal rulemaking makes its way through the necessary approvals. In some cases, however, weve seen egregious behavior in which individuals who should know better have repeatedly flouted the rules. Most recently, we announced a proposed civil penalty of $1.9 million against a company that demonstrated reckless disregard for safety on numerous occasions.
Thats not to say we have stopped stressing education. We recently updated our guidance to the model aircraft community. Were giving these flyers the tools and knowledge they need to operate safely. Weve released the beta version of a new smartphone application called B4UFLY, which alerts operators to restrictions or requirements in effect at their current or planned flight location.
The FAA and its partners continue to conduct outreach through the Know Before You Fly and No Drone Zone campaigns, most notably during the recent visit by the pope. Weve partnered with the San Francisco 49ers football team to produce public service announcements that run on the teams scoreboard during home games.
We are pursuing similar efforts with the National Football League itself, in hopes that we can reach an even wider audience. We also have some efforts underway in local markets, including Los Angeles, Phoenix and Dallas-Fort Worth.
Earlier this week, Transportation Secretary Foxx and I announced that we are going require unmanned aircraft to be registered, in much the same way as larger manned aircraft have been for decades. We are creating a task force comprised of a variety of stakeholders to help us develop an effective way to do this. By bringing together the best minds in this exciting new segment, we can arrive at a workable process that will encourage responsible flying and help maintain our record as the safest aviation system in the world.
We are publishing a notice in the Federal Register asking for ideas that could help the task force to do its work. We what to hear from anyone with solid, practical ideas on how to make this a success.
The task force will begin its work during the first week in November. We expect them to report back by Nov. 20 with recommendations for a streamlined registration process that takes advantage of available technology.
Someday, maybe we will look back and say this truly was our Wright Brothers moment. If we do our job correctly, we will marvel at how far we have come in such a short time.
Its hard to think of any part of the FAA that isnt changing and evolving in some way. In some cases, the need to change is imposed on us externally, as with unmanned aircraft and cyber security threats. In others, we are initiating change from within, as with compliance philosophy and our nationwide deployment of NextGen.
NextGen is arguably the most ambitious project we have taken on as an agency. As you all know, it is an all-encompassing, multi-decade, multi-billion dollar makeover of the worlds largest and most complex air traffic control system.
Its a commitment that the entire agency has embraced with energy and with enthusiasm.
In March, we achieved one of our most significant NextGen milestones to date: Completing the deployment of the En Route Automation Modernization, or ERAM, at our en route air traffic control centers here in the continental United States.
ERAM is a key element in the NextGen foundation, and it gives us the technological horsepower to support other key pieces.
Last year, we completed the installation of 634 ground transceivers that comprise the infrastructure of ADS-B, the core technology that moves us from a radar-based air traffic system to a satellite-based system.
Meanwhile, trials of Data Communications between pilots and controllers are delivering great results in Newark and Memphis. More recently, we have deployed DataComm in Houston and Salt Lake City. Operating much like text messaging, Data Comm promises to ease congestion on our frequencies and to reduce the potential for misunderstanding critical safety information.
Were on track to deliver Data Comm to more than 50 air traffic control towers and TRACONs in 2016, and we expect it will be in our large en route centers in 2019.
But even as were building the foundation for the future, were delivering powerful NextGen benefits in real time every day. Through the Metroplex initiative, weve implemented scores of new satellite-based air traffic procedures in Houston, North Texas, Washington DC metro and Northern California.
In fact, we now have more satellite-based procedures in our skies nationwide than radar-based procedures. These procedures, along with efforts such as Wake Turbulence Re-categorizationor Wake RECATare resulting in millions of dollars in fuel savings for the airlines, with corresponding reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases. Just this month, FedEx shared with the NextGen Advisory Committee that Wake RECAT has saved the cargo carrier over 10 million gallons of fuel.
That would have been hard to imagine just a few years ago.
The changes that were making to our aircraft certification process also would have been hard to imagine.
When we first started certificating aircraft, it was a pretty simple process. We laid out airworthiness standards for small airplanes, and manufacturers met them. Over the years, this process became much more complicated.
We knew we needed to find a better way to increase safety, to certify more efficiently, and help bring more products to market. Instead of requiring certain design elements on specific technologies, we knew we needed to define the safety outcomes we wanted to achieve. This approach recognizes theres more than one way to deliver on safety and it provides room for flexibility and innovation in the marketplace.
Today, were in the process of codifying this change into a rewrite of our Part 23 aviation regulations. Ive asked my team to shorten timeframes wherever possible so we can get this rule completed.
Its a big undertaking. The new rule will touch many different aspects of aviation, so we have to make sure its fair, can be measured and doesnt have an adverse effect on safety or airworthiness.
Now, there are two ways of looking at change: you can shrink from it, or you can embrace it. Here at the FAA, I believe our workforce should embrace every opportunity to be smarter, more efficient or safer.
But enacting change requires more than a committed and flexible workforce. It requires a stable operating environment as well.
As all of you know, Congress recently approved a short-term extension that keeps the FAA authorized through March of 2016. While this will keep us running for a few more months, I think we all know that short-term extensions are far from ideal. We are hopeful Congress will act soon to provide us with a long-term reauthorization that will provide the FAA with the tools necessary to meet the demands of the future and to minimize disruption to the progress weve already made.
There has been talk about restructuring the FAA as part of this reauthorization. As I have said before, we are certainly open to having this discussion. But in our view, the most important problems reauthorization should fix are budget instability and the lack of predictability and flexibility to execute our priorities.
When I began, I mentioned the occasional visit to the Air and Space Museum and how it prompts us to ponder our accomplishments. And I sometimes wonder what will be hanging from the rafters of Americas Attic fifty years from now. What mileposts will we add?
I think we have a glimpse from a couple of recent additions. Burt Rutan and Paul Allen showed us with Spaceship One that it doesnt take a government to send a man or woman safely to space.
Sixty-five years to the day that Chuck Yeager broke the sound barrier in the Bell X-1, Felix Baumgartner jumped from a capsule one that carried an FAA N-number, I might add from more than 24 miles into the atmosphere.
In a pressure suit, he reached speeds of 843 mph before parachuting safely to earth, becoming the first human to break the sound barrier without being surrounded by an aircraft. Imagine what DaVinci would think. Or Wilbur and Orville, for that matter.
What about unmanned aircraft? What will those milestones look like?
One thing remains constant, and it is what makes my job fun: Across the aviation industry, technology marches on, and bright young minds are turning the full force of their imagination toward the skies.
We are in a fundamentally different place in aviation than even a couple of years ago. And we know that this pace is only going to accelerate. This is both challenging and exciting.
Like you, I feel fortunate to play even a small role in building on the successes of those who came before us. And like you, Im looking forward to what the future will bring.
Thank you very much for having me here today.
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